The end of police propaganda? New NYPD crime statistics show the sky is not falling
Guest Post by Adam Elewa, Esq.
New York implemented historic and significant criminal justice reform in 2020, including a bail reform bill that led to a “substantial reduction in jail incarceration,” a discovery reform bill that replaced one the most restrictive discovery laws in the nation (what used to be known as the “blindfold law”), and the repeal of Section 50-a, a law ironically codified within New York Civil Rights Law that made it nearly impossible for the public to learn about the disciplinary records of police officers.
These reforms coincide with broad public support for rethinking the role of police in society, with many asking whether we are simply spending too much money on police when funds could be better used to improve the material conditions that underlie most criminal activity. Even in New York City, a city that has for decades turned to ‘tough on crime’ mayors as a means of solving all manner of social ills, a majority of registered voters support “defunding the police . . . to spend more on other local services.”
Unsurprisingly, these changes in law and public opinion have not been well received by the police, or their stenographers in the media. According to one particularly overwrought article in the New York Post, one of the City’s most popular local papers, New York has “deteriorated into a lawless state of crime thanks to recent riots, budget cuts and police reform.” Articles such as these, often containing little more than the uncritical word-for-word republishing of opinions from police officials and retired officers, are a common theme for the Post. And it’s easy to see why cops turn to the Post to get their message out. Nearly every article addressing crime in the city frames the issue as a simplistic morality tale, with Mayor de Blasio cast as the cop-hating villain for his role (which in fact is often all too limited) in overseeing reforms, and previous Mayors Bloomberg and Giuliani cast as the heroes who, by ‘supporting the police,’ saved New York City from Mad Max levels of anarchy and violence.
As with most morality tales, the empirical evidence paints a different and more complex picture. According to the NYPD’s own historical crime data, New York City has not deteriorated into a lawless state of crime. Rather, crime is at historic lows, even in the wake of the social and economic upheaval caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Here are some takeaways gleaned from the NYPD’s most recent data:
Crime in 2020 was lower than at any point in the past 20 years. With regard to the seven major felony offenses (murder & non-negligent manslaughter, rape, robbery, felony assault, burglary, grand larceny, grand larceny of a motor vehicle), 2020 was marked by 23 percent fewer offenses than the average Bloomberg year, and 12 percent fewer offenses than Bloomberg’s last five years in office (the period of his term where crime in NYC was at then-historic lows). The same is true with regard to more minor crimes. 2020 was marked by 43 percent fewer misdemeanor offenses than the average Bloomberg year, and 44 percent fewer misdemeanor offenses than Bloomberg’s last five years in office.
Homicide in 2020 was relatively low, despite the upheaval caused by COVID-19. Homicides in 2020 were 10 percent lower than the average Bloomberg year, with 2020’s murder rate being about on par (468 in 2020 versus 419 in 2012) with rates Mayor Bloomberg and Police Commissioner Kelly celebrated as evidence that NYC was “the safest big city in America.” In fact, 2020’s murder rate was lower than 10 out of 12 of Bloomberg’s years in office.
Crime is lower on average under Mayor de Blasio than Mayor Bloomberg. Looking at Mayor de Blasio’s entire term in office, spanning the last seven years, he has presided over a city with 34 percent fewer murders on average than was the case under Bloomberg. Even when you compare Mayor de Blasio’s term in office to Bloomberg’s ‘best years’, his last five in office, homicides were 25 percent lower under Mayor de Blasio. With regard to the seven major felony offenses, de Blasio’s presided over a city with 20 percent fewer offenses on average. The same is true of less serious crimes, with Mayor de Blasio presiding over 23 percent fewer misdemeanor offenses on average than Bloomberg.
Most crime—especially low-level offenses—decreased at a greater rate under Mayor de Blasio than Mayor Bloomberg. Aggregating together all criminal offenses (the seven major felonies, the non-seven major felonies, misdemeanors, and violations), and comparing Mayor Bloomberg’s first year in office (2002) to his last year in office (2013), the data shows that crime decreased at a rate of 17 percent during Bloomberg’s term, while overall crime decreased by 28 percent from Mayor de Blasio’s first year in office (2014) until the last year crime data is available (2020). The rate of decline in crime is even more stark when focusing on low-level offenses (misdemeanor and violations), which Mayor Bloomberg approached more punitively than did Mayor de Blasio, another major point of contention among the Post’s editorial staff. Using the same method of comparison, looking at data from both mayors’ first and last recorded years in office, low-level crime decreased by 12 percent under Bloomberg, and a whopping 32 percent under Mayor de Blasio.
In sum, New York City is not in a lawless state of crime, at least no more so than was true under the previous mayor, even during some of his “best” years. Although drawing sweeping conclusions from data reflecting complex social phenomena—especially crime statistics—is difficult, the data does show beyond question that simplistic narratives that posit more police (and more funding and ‘support’ for police) as the obvious solution to crime should be put to rest and treated as the rank propaganda they so clearly are. The sky certainly is falling, but not for the citizens of New York City. Rather the sky seems to be falling for those who depend on the mass incarceration of New Yorkers to make a living and hold onto political power. For them, I say “fiat justitia ruat caelum” — let justice be done though the heavens fall.
Adam M. Elewa is a staff attorney with the Legal Aid Society and former associate of ZMO Law PLLC. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of the Legal Aid Society.